Article Archives - Foresight

Overshoot: Navigating the challenges of exceeding global warming limits

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C has become a cornerstone of international climate policy. However, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the impacts of climate change intensify, surpassing this threshold is looking increasingly likely, if not inevitable. This scenario raises urgent questions about the risks involved, the feasibility of returning to safer temperature levels, and the social and economic trade-offs associated with such pathways. New tools and research, such as CMCC’s overshoot platform based on the work of an international team of scientists and design experts, can help answer these questions.

From risk to resilience

Resilience has shifted from being a matter of choice to an imperative. From climate disasters to failing infrastructure, the ability to withstand and recover from shocks is now at the heart of decision-making. Yet, despite its critical importance, there is still no universal definition for resilience and its relationship with risk. Dr Igor Linkov, a distinguished expert in risk prevention and management, walks us through methods for resilience quantification and how these can help transform fragmented approaches to risk management into coordinated strategies.

COP16 in Rome: Bridging the biodiversity finance gap

The COP16 on Biological Diversity reconvened at the headquarters of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations in Rome between 25 and 27 February, providing a critical juncture for global biodiversity conservation and the role of science in informing international negotiations. “Until we establish governance that treats climate and biodiversity as two sides of the same crisis, we will continue to fail in finding effective solutions,” says CMCC researcher Cristina Cipriano, who participated in the proceedings as coordinator of the European Regional Chapter and the Italian National Chapter of the Global Youth Biodiversity Network.

How climate change is reshaping the insurance landscape

The rising threats posed by extreme weather and climate events are challenging the way insurers approach at-risk areas. From wildfires in California, USA, to flooding in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, coordinated efforts are needed to create innovative insurance solutions. “The future of insurance will depend on solutions that do more than just compensate for damage – they must actively help reduce exposure to risk,” says CMCC researcher Guido Rianna.

CoastPredict: Coastal science at the heart of global transformation

Oceans play a central role in the climate system and the way they interact with coastlines leads to both great opportunities and some of the most pressing hazards concerning climate scientists. “Rising sea levels, intensifying storms, marine pollution, and coastal erosion highlight the need to improve our understanding of coastal systems and our ability to manage risks effectively,” says CMCC Strategy Council member and co-chair of CoastPredict, Nadia Pinardi.

It’s a wrap! The climate in 2024

As 2024 comes to a close we look back at the most important climate events, meetings, negotiations and initiatives from the last twelve months. Our research and data, articles and projects reveal a year that has been rich with developments and change in both the climate itself and what we can expect from the future.

US elections and the power to make or break climate finance

From Obama to Trump, then Biden and Trump again. The US presidents who have come and gone over the past quarter century have brought different visions and policies when it comes to climate finance. Leveraging her experience in policy analysis of international environmental and climate agreements, CMCC researcher Semercioglu Nazlicicek outlines the history of US contributions to loss and damage funding and what we can expect from a second Trump term in office.

Back from the enabling COP: Negotiators analyze outcomes from Baku

Climate finance was front and center, while a leading actor was relegated to a sideline role. In a CMCC webinar, negotiators returning from Baku take stock of key aspects of COP29, such as the complex context of the negotiations, decisions on the New Collective Quantified Goal, the Baku-to-Belem roadmap, news on the carbon market, global cooperation, and adaptation. Throughout, it emerges that bridging scientific insights with policy is more essential than ever to transform commitments into meaningful climate action.

UN Pact for the Future: The new global roadmap to sustainability

The United Nations recently adopted the UN Pact For The Future, its latest framework aimed at addressing global challenges and accelerating progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), reforming international financial systems to better serve developing nations, tackling climate change, and governing emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. We take a closer look at what this means for climate science.

case circondate dall'acqua sotto il cielo nuvoloso

COP29 Spotlight | Loss and Damage funding has to be at core of new climate finance regime

The focus of the ongoing COP is to decide on a new finance regime. Major polluters will be asked to massively increase their financial contributions to developing nations. Researchers from IIASA and CMCC show that Loss and Damage needs of vulnerable countries range between roughly 130 and 940 billion Dollars in 2025 alone. On top of money for mitigation and adaptation.

COP29 Spotlight | Agriculture, forestry, and other land use

At COP29 the critical role of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) as both a catalyst and a provider of potential solutions to rising emissions is of significant importance. “COP29 must lay the groundwork for COP30 by prioritizing sustainable land-use strategies and ensuring stronger commitments to reducing emissions from land use,” says CMCC researcher and member of the Italian delegation to COP29 Matteo Bellotta.

COP29 Spotlight | Land-based carbon removal and the climate crisis

Removing carbon from the atmosphere will play a crucial role in the ability of countries to reach their climate goals. “Alongside the role of carbon capture technologies, enhancing the carbon sink potential land sector is the solution to offsetting residual un-abatable emissions and therefore achieving net-zero targets,” says Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, CMCC researcher and member of the Italian delegation to COP29 – where Parties to the Paris Agreement are working towards establishing clear and rigorous rules for a UN backed-global carbon market.

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