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Future Earth

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Manifestations of chaos: The rise, fall and revival of the Koopman operator

Modeling and data-driven analysis are two essential pillars of climate science. The complex and chaotic nature of the climate system defies straightforward predictions like those possible with linear physical systems. A comprehensive theoretical framework for complexity could provide the context and tools to fully describe it. Could a century-old mathematical tool hold the key? The revival of the Koopman operator offers a promising path to achieve a more complete theoretical understanding of the climate system.

A climate compass: Advanced research directions to understand and design the future

The current effects of climate and the increasingly analytical understanding of what will happen in the future. Big data and the challenges of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. Increasingly detailed and understandable climate data to better define policies and strategies for the interaction between human societies and nature. The European State of the Climate 2023 through the lens of CMCC’s research strategy in the words of Simona Masina, director of the Institute for Earth System Prediction, and Monia Santini, director of the Institute for Climate Resilience.

Navigating coastal dynamics and building resilience

Around 40% of the global population resides on coasts, with many relying on coastal resources for sustenance. Climate change exacerbates coastal hazards, compelling decision-makers and asset owners to address coastal resilience. Delphine Lobelle, Climate & Nature advisor at Fugro, highlights the importance of understanding coastal dynamics to empower stakeholders and promote proactive measures for coastal resilience.

flooded European street

A call to action for a climate-resilient Europe. Interview with Hans-Martin Füssel.

As Europe grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, urgent action is imperative to address the multifaceted risks threatening the continent’s well-being. In an interview with Hans-Martin Füssel, an EEA Expert in Climate Change Adaptation, we delve into the findings of the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) report. From heatwaves to floods, the report sheds light on critical challenges and underscores the need for proactive measures that safeguard Europe’s future amidst the climate crisis.

houses with solar panels

John Weyant: Integrated Assessment Modelling informing future climate policy

“Whether or not we keep up with the needs of policymakers will be determined by how much they trust the results from models and how relevant they are to their needs.” Professor John Weyant of Stanford University discusses the evolution of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), emphasizing the importance of incorporating growing datasets to meet policymakers’ needs. The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) gathers leading climate modeling experts, facilitating crucial advancements in scenario development for climate policy. Its contributions, including defining concepts like Net-Zero, are crucial in informing international climate agreements and shaping future strategies for combating climate change.

What if AI could save lives? A paradigm shift in weather forecasting

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is showing an ability to provide faster and more accurate medium-range weather forecasts at a global level using fewer computational resources. Remi Lam presents GraphCast, the open-source machine-learning model produced by the AI firm Google DeepMind. Delivering 10-day weather predictions in less than one minute, the model could benefit people’s everyday lives across the globe, as well as providing better warnings for extreme events. 

Beyond forecasting: Machine Learning exploring climate impacts

Machine learning has emerged as a transformative tool in climate research, evolving from theory to practice over the past few decades. In this context, CMCC is expanding its focus beyond traditional climate modeling to include the study of environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change through data-driven approaches. This transformation is expected to involve all-encompassing capacity building, with substantial infrastructure investments alongside efforts to enhance the knowledge base of scientists.

The AI revolution in weather forecasting: Reactions and comments from the mediasphere

The accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts can make all the difference in decision making processes. However, as private sector actors leverage artificial intelligence to develop more accurate forecasts than traditional models, experts and journalists try to identify new ethical, political, and technological challenges for the future of weather forecasting.

Isole Marshall

“We will not go silently to our watery graves”: How to save a nation from drowning

The Marshall Islands, a nation of low-lying atolls threatened by rising sea levels, is facing an existential crisis. Yet, amidst this adversity, the Marshallese people are not only adapting to climate change but also charting a path for survival. Drawing inspiration from their rich maritime heritage, the Marshall Islands have developed a groundbreaking National Adaptation Plan for Survival (NAP). This plan, unveiled at COP28, outlines a comprehensive strategy for addressing the climate crisis over the next century.

People in Amazon River Brazil

Democratizing climate modeling for more pertinent and accurate policy insights

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) play a pivotal role in shaping climate research and policy. “The main progress lies in democratizing modeling capabilities across different countries, ensuring more pertinent and accurate policy insights,” says Roberto Schaeffer. The need for a shift towards national-level modeling of climate impacts, the complexity of balancing immediate costs with long-term benefits at the policy level, and the representation gap between countries, are at the core of the current discussion around climate modeling.

COP28 | GIULIO BOCCALETTI. The take-home messages: Advanced knowledge of climate and its interaction with society matters far more.

“CMCC’s strategy aligns with the state of science and society today”. CMCC Scientific Director Giulio Boccaletti comments on the outcome of COP28 in Dubai, where our scientists were engaged in many topics, ranging from adaptation to loss & damage, land use and the science-policy interface. The growing need for integrated scientific knowledge, the intertwining of the climate and socio-economic systems, the ever-closer integration of adaptation and mitigation, and the opportunities arising from machine learning and available data: the points that emerge from COP28 are at the heart of the CMCC strategy.