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Future Earth

Overshoot: Navigating the challenges of exceeding global warming limits

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C has become a cornerstone of international climate policy. However, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the impacts of climate change intensify, surpassing this threshold is looking increasingly likely, if not inevitable. This scenario raises urgent questions about the risks involved, the feasibility of returning to safer temperature levels, and the social and economic trade-offs associated with such pathways. New tools and research, such as CMCC’s overshoot platform based on the work of an international team of scientists and design experts, can help answer these questions.

abstract red and blue building

It’s a wrap! The climate in 2024

As 2024 comes to a close we look back at the most important climate events, meetings, negotiations and initiatives from the last twelve months. Our research and data, articles and projects reveal a year that has been rich with developments and change in both the climate itself and what we can expect from the future.

people on a cliff with sunset

UN Pact for the Future: The new global roadmap to sustainability

The United Nations recently adopted the UN Pact For The Future, its latest framework aimed at addressing global challenges and accelerating progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), reforming international financial systems to better serve developing nations, tackling climate change, and governing emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. We take a closer look at what this means for climate science.

abstract lights

Manifestations of chaos: The rise, fall and revival of the Koopman operator

Modeling and data-driven analysis are two essential pillars of climate science. The complex and chaotic nature of the climate system defies straightforward predictions like those possible with linear physical systems. A comprehensive theoretical framework for complexity could provide the context and tools to fully describe it. Could a century-old mathematical tool hold the key? The revival of the Koopman operator offers a promising path to achieve a more complete theoretical understanding of the climate system.

A climate compass: Advanced research directions to understand and design the future

The current effects of climate and the increasingly analytical understanding of what will happen in the future. Big data and the challenges of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. Increasingly detailed and understandable climate data to better define policies and strategies for the interaction between human societies and nature. The European State of the Climate 2023 through the lens of CMCC’s research strategy in the words of Simona Masina, director of the Institute for Earth System Prediction, and Monia Santini, director of the Institute for Climate Resilience.

Navigating coastal dynamics and building resilience

Around 40% of the global population resides on coasts, with many relying on coastal resources for sustenance. Climate change exacerbates coastal hazards, compelling decision-makers and asset owners to address coastal resilience. Delphine Lobelle, Climate & Nature advisor at Fugro, highlights the importance of understanding coastal dynamics to empower stakeholders and promote proactive measures for coastal resilience.

flooded European street

A call to action for a climate-resilient Europe. Interview with Hans-Martin Füssel.

As Europe grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, urgent action is imperative to address the multifaceted risks threatening the continent’s well-being. In an interview with Hans-Martin Füssel, an EEA Expert in Climate Change Adaptation, we delve into the findings of the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) report. From heatwaves to floods, the report sheds light on critical challenges and underscores the need for proactive measures that safeguard Europe’s future amidst the climate crisis.

houses with solar panels

John Weyant: Integrated Assessment Modelling informing future climate policy

“Whether or not we keep up with the needs of policymakers will be determined by how much they trust the results from models and how relevant they are to their needs.” Professor John Weyant of Stanford University discusses the evolution of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), emphasizing the importance of incorporating growing datasets to meet policymakers’ needs. The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) gathers leading climate modeling experts, facilitating crucial advancements in scenario development for climate policy. Its contributions, including defining concepts like Net-Zero, are crucial in informing international climate agreements and shaping future strategies for combating climate change.

What if AI could save lives? A paradigm shift in weather forecasting

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is showing an ability to provide faster and more accurate medium-range weather forecasts at a global level using fewer computational resources. Remi Lam presents GraphCast, the open-source machine-learning model produced by the AI firm Google DeepMind. Delivering 10-day weather predictions in less than one minute, the model could benefit people’s everyday lives across the globe, as well as providing better warnings for extreme events. 

Beyond forecasting: Machine Learning exploring climate impacts

Machine learning has emerged as a transformative tool in climate research, evolving from theory to practice over the past few decades. In this context, CMCC is expanding its focus beyond traditional climate modeling to include the study of environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change through data-driven approaches. This transformation is expected to involve all-encompassing capacity building, with substantial infrastructure investments alongside efforts to enhance the knowledge base of scientists.

The AI revolution in weather forecasting: Reactions and comments from the mediasphere

The accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts can make all the difference in decision making processes. However, as private sector actors leverage artificial intelligence to develop more accurate forecasts than traditional models, experts and journalists try to identify new ethical, political, and technological challenges for the future of weather forecasting.