As 2024 comes to a close we look back at the most important climate events, meetings, negotiations and initiatives from the last twelve months. Our research and data, articles and projects reveal a year that has been rich with developments and change in both the climate itself and what we can expect from the future.
Climate finance was front and center, while a leading actor was relegated to a sideline role. In a CMCC webinar, negotiators returning from Baku take stock of key aspects of COP29, such as the complex context of the negotiations, decisions on the New Collective Quantified Goal, the Baku-to-Belem roadmap, news on the carbon market, global cooperation, and adaptation. Throughout, it emerges that bridging scientific insights with policy is more essential than ever to transform commitments into meaningful climate action.
The focus of the ongoing COP is to decide on a new finance regime. Major polluters will be asked to massively increase their financial contributions to developing nations. Researchers from IIASA and CMCC show that Loss and Damage needs of vulnerable countries range between roughly 130 and 940 billion Dollars in 2025 alone. On top of money for mitigation and adaptation.
“Whether or not we keep up with the needs of policymakers will be determined by how much they trust the results from models and how relevant they are to their needs.” Professor John Weyant of Stanford University discusses the evolution of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), emphasizing the importance of incorporating growing datasets to meet policymakers’ needs. The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) gathers leading climate modeling experts, facilitating crucial advancements in scenario development for climate policy. Its contributions, including defining concepts like Net-Zero, are crucial in informing international climate agreements and shaping future strategies for combating climate change.
As climate policies evolve, so too must their approach to equity: a just and equal transition is “probably the only one that’s feasible”, explains Matthias Weitzel, researcher at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. Navigating the complexities of EU climate policies, such as the balance between regulatory standards and carbon pricing, is crucial to ensure fairness and equity across society.
Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of the think tank Strategic Perspectives, outlines strengths and weaknesses of the EC recommendation of reducing 90% net EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 and describes opportunities and shapes of a future that is just around the corner.
“CMCC’s strategy aligns with the state of science and society today”. CMCC Scientific Director Giulio Boccaletti comments on the outcome of COP28 in Dubai, where our scientists were engaged in many topics, ranging from adaptation to loss & damage, land use and the science-policy interface. The growing need for integrated scientific knowledge, the intertwining of the climate and socio-economic systems, the ever-closer integration of adaptation and mitigation, and the opportunities arising from machine learning and available data: the points that emerge from COP28 are at the heart of the CMCC strategy.
The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is playing a pivotal role in the ongoing climate discussions at COP28, constituting not only a significant contribution to climate change but also possessing substantial potential for its mitigation.
Positioned as a pivotal theme at COP28, adaptation efforts should aim for a shared and common framework to fortify resilience and reduce vulnerabilities at different scales. Adaptation is crucial in the context of the Global Stocktake, intended to inform Parties to the Paris Agreement on their progress against its goals, including limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. National Adaptation Plans also take center stage in current climate discussions, marking the launchpad for states to decipher local and national vulnerabilities and risks, plan effective adaptation actions, and secure funding. CMCC scientist Marta Ellena shares insights illuminating COP28’s ambition for a sustainable and resilient future.
High quality data is essential if we are to achieve our global climate related goals. Sue Armstrong-Brown, Global Director of Environmental Standards and Thought Leadership at CDP, explains how data obtained through disclosure informed the Global Stocktake to be agreed at COP28 and how the world is taking action to fill the shortage of climate-related information.
Decoupling emissions from economic growth is seen as a key requisite for meeting climate targets. How do we achieve this? “Energy efficiency resources are infinitely expendable resources of ideas, depleting only stupidity, a very abundant resource,” says Amory Lovins.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report sets a roadmap for net zero emissions by 2050. From progress and positive signals, to bottlenecks and rising challenges we look at how researchers, media and NGOs have reacted to the report. “Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand,” says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
